What it is
Published in 2021, Bill Gates presents a framework for understanding and addressing climate change through the lens of technology and investment. He breaks emissions into five sectors (making things, plugging in, growing things, getting around, keeping warm/cool) and evaluates the green premium, the additional cost of clean alternatives, for each.
Why we picked this
Gates brings an investor's rigor to climate solutions. The green premium framework is the most useful mental model for evaluating which clean technologies are ready for deployment and which need more R&D. He is honest about what is hard (cement, steel, aviation) and clear about what is already economic.
Key takeaways
- Green steel becomes competitive with conventional steel when hydrogen costs fall below approximately $2-2.8/kg, combined with carbon prices of $15-50 per tonne.
- Green ammonia carries a 42-110% premium under typical EU conditions, making it one of the harder sectors to decarbonize through market forces alone.
- Power-to-liquid sustainable aviation fuel requires approximately 100 kWh per gallon, highlighting why aviation decarbonization depends on cheap, abundant clean electricity.